Pawtucket, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

515
FXUS61 KBOX 131816
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
116 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Some
interior rain showers very late tonight, but any snow showers
confined to the very highest terrain. Relatively mild conditions
today, and especially Wednesday, with sharply colder weather
arriving later Thursday into Friday behind a strong cold front.
While a significant storm appears unlikely Saturday night into
Sunday, a bit of snow is certainly possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall quiet weather today, followed by a period of showers
  late tonight across interior southern New England with some
  snow showers confined to the very highest terrain.

- Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain showers
  perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers early
  Thu across the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

- Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps. Dry & cold Thu
  night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single digits & teens
  with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

- Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps a bit of snow
  sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm is unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall quiet weather today, followed by a
period of showers late tonight across interior southern New
England with some snow showers confined to the very highest
terrain.

A series of shortwaves quickly move from west to east tonight
along zonal flow. First disturbance passes with little impacts
outside of an increase in mid and high level clouds this morning
across northern MA. Milder day follows as a transient ridge axis
develops over New England. Latest guidance still shows a milder
day on tap as 925mb temps climb to 0- 2C. A more amplified
shortwave digs over the Great Lakes later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. First sign of its approach will be increasing mid and
high level clouds later today. Should see a broken band of
precipitation pass through the CWA with the higher chances
located across northern Massachusetts. Much of the forcing with
this shortwave will be confined to Northern New England and so
shower activity will be limited in coverage and intensity. May
also see a few flakes mix in across the higher terrain but
accumulations if any will be light with marginal temperatures
and modest QPF.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mild weather Wed into Wed night with a few rain
showers perhaps ending as a brief period of light snow showers
early Thu across the interior. Highs Wed in the 40s to near 50.

An amplifying shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and
into northern New England Wed into early Thu. Out ahead of this
cold front/amplifying shortwave trough, southerly flow will
result in unseasonably mild temperatures. Despite considerable
clouds, high temps will be well into the 40s to near 50 in a few
spots. These readings are a solid 10+ degrees above normal for
mid January standards.

Given the bulk of the dynamics passing to our north, not
expecting a lot of precipitation and much of this time will
feature dry weather. Nonetheless, a few showers will be possible
at times Wed into Wed night with the focus for them across
interior southern New England closer to the shortwave energy. As
colder air begins to work in from the west, may see precipitation
end as a brief period of light snow showers across interior
southern New England early Thu morning. Any snow accumulations
should be a dusting to generally less than 1 inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Turning colder Thu with falling daytime temps.
Dry & cold Thu night-Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper single
digits & teens with highs Fri mainly in the upper 20s and lower
30s.

Low pressure will rapidly intensifies Thu into Thu night as it
tracks northeast from northern new England into the Canadian
Maritimes. The result will be a shot of much colder air working
into southern new England Thu into Fri. Temps on Thu will likely
fall during the afternoon into the upper 20s and 30s on a stiff
gusty west wind. Low temps Thu night will drop into the upper
single digits and teens. Wind chills will drop to between 5
below and 10 above by daybreak Fri. High temps on Fri will only
recover into the upper 20s and lower 30s. High pressure building
in from the west will keep our weather dry, despite the cold
conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Milder high temps into the 40s Sat with perhaps
a bit of snow sometime Sat night-Sun...but a significant storm
is unlikely.

High pressure quickly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast to
start this weekend as another trough gets carved out across the
Great Lakes. This allows for a quick rebound in temperatures
with highs mainly in the 40s on Sat. The forecast then becomes
quite complex Sat night into Sunday with an amplifying trough to
our west with several pieces of shortwave energy. The problem is
that the guidance is struggling on which piece of energy to
amplify and where the actual surface low develops. Latest
guidance tends to develop the main surface low too far north and
late for a significant storm. That being said, there are a few
pieces of guidance including the CMC/ICON that have a wave of
low pressure further south with the potential for an inverted
trough setup. So while a significant storm appears unlikely,
given the amount of shortwave energy to our west we cannot rule
out period of snow sometime Sat night into Sun if an inverted
trough sets up. Whether or not this happens remains to be
seen, but it is something to watch in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High -greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight...High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Very brief MVFR conditions possible across the
interior between about 03-09Z in a few brief rain showers. Any
snow showers will be confined to the very highest terrain of the
Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills and rather short-lived
too. Modest LLJ developing will result in periods of SW wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots tonight near and southeast of the I-95
corridor. LLWS included for some terminals given winds at 850 mb
on the order of 45 to 55 knots.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR for most. Areas MVFR and local IFR towards the Berkshires
during the afternoon. Low risk for some rain showers as well.

Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR to start across the eastern half of southern New
England. Areas MVFR with local IFR across the western half
expanding east after midnight. Widespread MVFR with IFR across
the higher terrain expected towards the Thursday morning push.
Chance of rain showers, with snow showers across the higher
terrain of the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. More widespread
snow showers possible across the western half of southern New
England late.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High Confidence.

Low pressure moving across southeast Canada will result in an
increasing S to SW wind across the waters. Gusts up to 30 kt
possible. Rough seas expected to develop across the southern
coastal waters as well, so Small Craft Advisories continue. A
cold front should approach the waters late Wednesday night.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray, slight chance of
snow showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Freezing spray.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/FT
AVIATION...Belk/Frank/FT
MARINE...Frank/FT